Ray: Good morning, this is Biscuits and Tickers for Monday, October twenty-sixth. I'm Ray.

Nora: And I'm Nora. U.S. stock futures are edging higher as oil cools off, but the big shock overnight is in Brazil, where Brazilian stocks traded in New York are collapsing after President Lula won a surprise fourth term. Plus a packed week: the Fed on Wednesday, and earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.

Ray: Start with the scoreboard. On Friday the S and P 500 fell about half a percent to close at 7,623.68, its second straight weekly loss. The Nasdaq 100 finished essentially flat at about 28,958. Worries about AI spending, higher oil and Middle East tensions all weighed on the week, according to TheStreet.

Ray: This morning, Reuters reported Dow futures up about half a percent, S and P 500 futures up about three tenths of a percent, and Nasdaq 100 futures up about a quarter percent as of early trading. Pre-market prices for the big index funds a bit later showed the S and P tracking fund up about four tenths of a percent and the Nasdaq 100 fund up about seven tenths.

Nora: Oil is the main reason for the relief. U.S. crude is down about 2 percent, near 101 dollars a barrel, according to Reuters, and Brent is down more than 1 percent. Reuters says Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran to help ease regional tensions. That comes after Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed weekend attacks on Saudi oil sites, including the Rabigh refinery and the East-West pipeline. Babypips notes that damage has not been confirmed.

Nora: In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield sits just under 5 percent, at about 4.99 percent. Gold is up about half a percent, a bit above 4,000 dollars an ounce. Bitcoin is little changed near 80,300 dollars. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, is around 19. Overseas, Newsquawk reports Japan's Nikkei lower on tech weakness and South Korea's Kospi also slipping, while Europe closed lower on Friday, with Germany's DAX down almost 1 percent.

Ray: Today's U.S. calendar is light. We get the Chicago Fed national activity index for September at 8:30 Eastern, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for October at 10:30.

Ray: Earnings this morning include Verizon, ticker V Z, and Cemex. After the close, the reports to watch include Cadence Design Systems, ticker C D N S, Nucor, Welltower, Public Storage, Amkor Technology, Celestica, Hartford Financial and Whirlpool.

Nora: The rest of the week is crowded. Tuesday brings consumer confidence and Israel's election. Wednesday is the Fed decision at 2 p.m. Eastern, with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting after the bell. Thursday has the first read on third-quarter GDP, September PCE inflation, the European Central Bank decision, and Amazon and Intel after the close. The Bank of Japan decides Friday, and the midterm elections are November third.

Ray: Our top story. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Sunday's runoff with about 51.8 percent of the vote, defeating right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, according to Invezz and CNBC. It's the first time since 1989 that a candidate who finished second in the first round came back to win. Bolsonaro has refused to concede and alleged foul play.

Ray: Markets had been positioned for a Bolsonaro win. The Bovespa closed Friday almost 7 percent above its level before the first round, and the real had gained nearly 5 percent, according to Invezz. Now that trade is unwinding fast. The iShares MSCI Brazil fund, ticker E W Z, is down about 26 percent in pre-market trading. Reuters reported the Japanese-listed Brazil ETF lost about 15 percent in Tokyo.

Nora: Brazilian names listed in New York are getting hit hard. Brokerage XP, ticker X P, is down nearly half. Nu Holdings, ticker N U, Itau Unibanco, ticker I T U B, StoneCo and PagSeguro are each down roughly 25 to 35 percent pre-market, according to Benzinga and Robinhood quotes.

Nora: The worry is fiscal. ING's Chris Turner called fiscal policy Brazil's Achilles heel, pointing to a budget deficit of 7 to 8 percent of G D P. UBS Global Wealth Management said investors want a clear and credible commitment to fiscal discipline. ING expected the dollar to jump 5 to 7 percent against the real. Brazil's local market opens at 10 Eastern, which will be the first real test.

Ray: Second story: the Fed. Policymakers meet Tuesday and Wednesday after raising rates in September. Markets widely expect a hold at a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, with futures pricing only about a 10 percent chance of a hike this week, according to TheStreet and Babypips.

Ray: The focus is what Chair Kevin Warsh says about December. Reuters, citing LSEG data, says traders see a December hike as firmly possible and expect at least two quarter-point increases by mid-2027. Economist Alan Blinder told Yahoo Finance he expects a hawkish pause. No new rate projections come with this meeting. The Bank of Canada is expected to hike on Wednesday as well.

Nora: Third story: AI spending, which drove last week's selling. Reuters notes CoreWeave, ticker C R W V, and Nebius have each lost more than 30 percent of their market value this month. Elon Musk said markets have nearly shut off funding for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, and predicted consolidation among these so-called neocloud providers.

Nora: CoreWeave is down about 2 percent pre-market, and IREN is down almost 2 percent. Separately, Newsquawk reports SpaceX closed about 40 billion dollars in debt financing for Nvidia chips. All of this sets up this week's earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, where investors want evidence that heavy AI spending is paying off.

Ray: Fourth story: Verizon, ticker V Z, reported this morning. In its release, the company said adjusted earnings were 1 dollar 31 cents a share, ahead of the 1 dollar 27 cent estimate, on revenue of 34.3 billion dollars, up 1.5 percent. TheStreet says revenue missed forecasts.

Ray: Verizon added 406,000 postpaid phone subscribers and raised its full-year guidance for the third straight quarter. It now sees 1.1 to 1.2 million postpaid phone additions, adjusted earnings growth of 7 to 7.5 percent, and free cash flow growth of about 12 percent. Even so, the stock is down about 1 percent pre-market.

Nora: Other movers. Surgery Partners, ticker S G R Y, is up about 23 percent after the Financial Times reported Bon Secours Mercy Health is in late-stage talks to buy a majority stake, in a deal valued near 6 billion dollars. Xencor, ticker X N C R, is up about 30 percent after early cancer data presented at the ESMO conference showed a 45.5 percent response rate in advanced kidney cancer.

Nora: Tesla is up about 2 percent, and most megacap tech names are modestly higher. On sectors, energy could lag as crude pulls back, while Latin American and emerging market funds are under pressure from the Brazil selloff. The 10-year yield near 5 percent remains a headwind for rate-sensitive groups like real estate and small caps.

Ray: What to watch today. First, the Brazilian market open at 10 Eastern, and whether the selling spreads to other emerging markets. Second, oil, and any news on Iran talks or the Houthi claims against Saudi facilities.

Ray: Third, the 10-year yield and whether it holds below 5 percent ahead of the Fed. And fourth, after the close, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor, Amkor and Welltower, as a warm-up for the Big Tech reports later in the week.

Nora: That's Biscuits and Tickers for Monday. This briefing is information, not investment advice. I'm Nora.

Ray: And I'm Ray. Have a good morning.